Echocardiography-based risk score predicts cardiovascular outcomes in ischemic heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction

Abstract

Abstract Background Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the most common cause of heart failure (HF) and serves as an important prognostic factor across the whole HF spectrum. Prognostic assessment is important for optimal patient care, and a number of prediction models or prognostic scores have been developed in the past years for risk stratification of HF patients. Purpose Present study aimed to develop a comprehensive echocardiography-based score algorism for risk assessment of ischemic heart failure (IHF) patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (<50%). Methods This study included 1355 IHF patients with ejection fraction <50%, the median clinical follow-up was 25 months. Multivariable Cox hazard models were used to assess the associations between echocardiography variables [including 13 standard parameters and global longitudinal strain (GLS)] and major adverse outcomes [including all-cause mortality, cardiovascular (CV) death, and CV related hospitalization]. Results Rates of all-cause mortality, CV mortality, and combined CV events including death and hospitalization, were 29.2%, 18.2%, 41.1%, respectively. Right ventricular mid-cavity diameter (RVD)>38mm, mitral annular plane systolic excursion (MAPSE)<8mm, tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE)<12mm, transmitral early flow velocity to mitral annular velocity ratio (E/E´)>14.5, systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP)>38mmHg, and absolute GLS<8% were identified as independent echocardiographic indexes for worse clinical outcome in the multivariable Cox models. An echocardiography-based risk score (Echo Risk Score, ranged from 0 to 6 points) was established based on these markers and patients were classified into 3 risk groups: a score of 0 to 1 as low-risk, 2 to 3 as intermediate-risk, and 4-6 as high-risk. After adjustment for all clinical covariates, high-risk patients faced 2 to 3-fold increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 2.42, 95% CI 1.81-3.24), CV mortality (HR 2.75, 95% CI 1.88-4.02), and combined CV events (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.43-2.36) compared with low-risk patients. Incremental predicting efficacy was evidenced after the addition of Echo Risk Score either to the model including clinical risk factors or to the model including clinical risk factors and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (all P<0.001, Figure 1). Conclusions This new echocardiography-based risk score is significantly and independently associated with all-cause mortality and CV mortality or hospitalization in ischemic heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction. Future studies are warranted to validate the predicting efficacy of this echocardiography-based risk score in ischemic heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction.Figure 1