兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)對台灣機械業之貿易效果-引力模型的驗證

Abstract

Under the development of Economic Globalization, the trend of Trade Liberalization has arising. To promote the quantum of Foreign trade , most countries of the world promote to sign a Free trade Agreement. Recent years, the countries of Asian has used the different way ,such as「ASEAN+N」、bilateral FTA, to build the economic cooperation framework. To January 2012,the number of FTA signed by Asian countries have reached to190. However, Taiwan only signed 5 FTAs with Central America countries before Economic Cooperation Framework. Indeed, Taiwan face the crisis of economic marginalization. Therefore, it is an important issue to sign the FTA with mail trading countries. The Mainland China is the biggest trading partner of Taiwan. Recently years, China has become the World market from the World factory. The sign of Economic Cooperation Framework between Taiwan and Mainland China will bring the tariff reduction and exemption. Besides, Taiwan also can get competition advantage in the market of Mainland China when face the challenge of South Korea and Japan, and get the same competition condition with the countries of ASEAN. Since 1st ,January 2011, the Economic Cooperation Framework between Taiwan and Mainland China has been effect ,and step into the second stage from 1st ,January 2012. Now, most product in the harvest list of ECFA has got the tariff reduction and exemption. According to the harvest list of ECFA, machinery industry is the 3rd industry in the number of products getting the tariff reduction and exemption. Owing to Mainland China is the biggest trading partner of Taiwan machinery industry, the thesis choose the Taiwan machinery industry as the Subject, take Gravity Model as the research method, and use the data of Taiwan＇foreign trade with 11 trading countries to analyze the factors of affect bilateral trading and the effect of ECFA. It finds that ECFA brings the positive effect to Taiwan machinery industry＇foreign trade. Besides, it also finds that EU、CEPA、CAFTA bring negative effect to Taiwan machinery industry＇foreign trade. To the further research, we suggest that it can choose the representative industry such as textile industry or petrochemical industry to analyze the effect in the different industry ,and the impact in Taiwan＇foreign trade. The in-depth research will provide more reference information and upgrade the value of the research.