Abstract
OBJECTIVESAccording to the World Health Organization, there have been frequent reports of Ebola virus disease (EVD) since the 2014 EVD pandemic in West Africa. We aim to estimate the outbreak scale when an EVD infected person arrives in Korea.METHODSWestern Africa EVD epidemic mathematical model SEIJR or SEIJQR was modified to create a Korean EVD outbreak model. The expected number of EVD patients and outbreak duration were calculated by stochastic simulation under the scenarios of Best case, Diagnosis delay, and Case missing.RESULTSThe 2,000 trials of stochastic simulation for each scenario demonstrated the following results: The possible median number of patients is 2 and the estimated maximum number is 11 when the government intervention is proceeded immediately right after the first EVD case is confirmed. With a 6-day delay in diagnosis of the first case, the median number of patients becomes 7, and the maximum, 20. If the first case is missed and the government intervention is not activated until 2 cases of secondary infection occur, the median number of patients is estimated at 15, and the maximum, at 35.CONCLUSIONSTimely and rigorous diagnosis is important to reduce the spreading scale of infection when a new communicable disease is inflowed into Korea. Moreover, it is imperative to strengthen the local surveillance system and diagnostic protocols to avoid missing cases of secondary infection.
Highlights
Ebola virus disease (EVD), called hemorrhagic fever, is a systemic illness caused by the Ebola virus
The results demonstrated that there can be at the most 3.5 patients within the 95% confidence interval (CI) after 25 days the first imported case of a patient, and that the number of patients remains less than 1 on average
A delay in the diagnosis of the first EVD patient arrival and secondary cases have resulted in an increase in the number of EVD patients and epidemic duration
Summary
Ebola virus disease (EVD), called hemorrhagic fever, is a systemic illness caused by the Ebola virus. Since EVD is transmitted by close contact and have a high mortality, it is not likely to progress into a pandemic, but the location of first outbreak site (the border of 3 countries) and the Western African funeral rituals (embracing or kissing the deceased) made the spread much greater. One of them was not a healthcare worker (HCW), and in a related event, 2 additional cases of infection among medical staff have occurred domestically in the USA [13,14,15]
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.