Easy probability estimation of the diagnosis of early axial spondyloarthritis by summing up scores

Abstract

Several sets of criteria for the diagnosis of axial SpA (including non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis) have been proposed in the literature in which scores were attributed to relevant findings and the diagnosis requests a minimal sum of these scores. To quantitatively estimate the probability of axial SpA, multiplying the likelihood ratios of all relevant findings was proposed by Rudwaleit et al. in 2004. The objective of our proposal is to combine the advantages of both, i.e. to estimate the probability by summing up scores instead of multiplying likelihood ratios. An easy way to estimate the probability of axial spondyloarthritis is to use the logarithms of the likelihood ratios as scores attributed to relevant findings and to use the sum of these scores for the probability estimation. A list of whole-numbered scores for relevant findings is presented, and also threshold sum values necessary for a definite and for a probable diagnosis of axial SpA as well as a threshold below which the diagnosis of axial spondyloarthritis can be excluded. In a diagram, the probability of axial spondyloarthritis is given for sum values between these thresholds. By the method proposed, the advantages of both, the easy summing up of scores and the quantitative calculation of the diagnosis probability, are combined. Our method also makes it easier to estimate which additional tests are necessary to come to a definite diagnosis.