Abstract
The aim of this research is to discover a reliable and scientific precursor that is theoretically able to predict all earthquakes, within specified parameters, within a few days, in this case within two days, of the earthquakes - this is more efficient than having a prediction window of months or years. This method has accurately predicted 14 out of 15 earthquakes within specified parameters of location, magnitude and depth, with no false predictions-this is a success rate of 93%. Deviations in the times for a simple pendulum to complete 30 oscillations were analysed and these deviations were used to make earthquake predictions. This is related to plate motion and changes in ‘g’. The parameters of earthquakes predicted include those that occurred in north-eastern Colombia, of magnitude M 4.0 and higher, and depth 100 km or more. Also included in the predictions are earthquakes of similar magnitude, originating at depths of 25 km and more in Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat and Guadeloupe. Another parameter is that for an earthquake to be accurately predicted it must not occur within 24 hours of the previous one. These earthquakes were predicted within two days of their occurrences. In addition to predicting earthquakes, the data supports the rebound theory, since deviations in times for 30 oscillations return to zero within a day or two after an earthquake-this allows for calculations of rebound velocities. The data also shows that there is a net transfer of lithospheric matter away from the observation point at St. Augustine, Trinidad. This method can be applied anywhere on earth-it is simple to set up, inexpensive, scientific and reliable.
Highlights
In Seismology, the terms earthquake prediction and earthquake forecasting initially were used interchangeably
Earthquake prediction is generally accepted to be more rigorous than earthquake forecasting, i.e. an earthquake prediction is more specific that an earthquake forecast
Time increases and decreases from base times can be observed by looking at the columns for average times in Tables 1 and 2 – these deviations occurred within two days before the corresponding earthquakes
Summary
In Seismology, the terms earthquake prediction and earthquake forecasting initially were used interchangeably. There are various definitions for earthquake prediction but Nishenko used the definition: ‘Earthquake prediction refers to the specification of the expected magnitude, geographic location and time of occurrence of a future event with a high probability and sufficient precision that the ultimate success or failure of a prediction can be evaluated’. This definition does not include a method of validation of the prediction. A definition of earthquake forecasting is the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes in a given area over years or decades [1]. There have been so many unsuccessful attempts that some are of the opinion that it is inherently impossible [2,3,4] to predict earthquakes
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