Earthquakes and tsunamis (November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007) in the Central Kuril Islands region: A justified prediction

Abstract

On November 15, 2006, at 11:14 UTC, one of the strongest tsunamigenous earthquakes occurred near the Russian coast in the region of the Central Kuril Islands. Its magnitude was M w = 8.3, and the epicenter was located on the island slope of the deep Kuril–Kamchatka Trench 90 km southeast of Simushir Island (Fig. 1). The earthquake generated a tsunami that was manifested over the entire Pacific Ocean and was recorded with high accuracy by numerous coastal pressure gauges and by a large number of deep-water stations located in the open part of the ocean. The tsunami of 2006 became the strongest event of such type observed in the Pacific Ocean over the last 42 years (after the strongest Alaska tsunami in 1964). It occurred less than two years after the catastrophic December 26, 2004, earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean, which caused unprecedented destruction and victims. However, it stimulated a drastic intensification in tsunami research [1, 2]. The November 15, 2006, earthquake and tsunami are unique because the possibility of their occurrence in the Central Kuril Islands region was predicted [1, 3, 4] and the possible scenarios of tsunami propagation were modeled [5, 6].