Abstract
Himalayan mountains are one of the most seismo-tectonically active zones on the surface of the earth. Recurring moderate and high magnitude earthquakes are not uncommon in this region. This paper maps the earthquake vulnerability in the region using integrated multi-criteria decision models. Factors which may influence vulnerability in a region can be categorized in social, geotechnical, structural, and physical parameters. We have used the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approach to determine the weights of various parameters, which were further used to develop earthquake vulnerability maps for the study area using the VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR), and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) methods. There is good correlation between the vulnerability estimated through AHP-VIKOR and AHP-GRA methods. Our analysis indicates that more than 12% area may be under high to very-high vulnerability, whereas more than 44% population, and about 43% buildings are highly vulnerable to hazards due to earthquakes. The results would be useful for various hazard mitigation and infrastructure planning agencies working in the region.
Highlights
Himalaya is one of the world's most seismo-tectonically active zone on the earth
We have used the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approach to determine the weights of various parameters, which have been further used in the VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) method to develop earthquake vulnerability maps for the study area
Estimating earthquake vulnerability is a multi-criteria problem and substantially includes a number of parameters that are likely to affect the region under investigation, such as population density and quality of buildings and infrastructure, nearness to the seismo-tectonically active geological features, historical and recent seismic activities, and availability of the health care facility, communication network, etc
Summary
Himalaya is one of the world's most seismo-tectonically active zone on the earth. The continuous collision of Indian and Eurasian plates results in the accumulation of the strain energy (Dewey et al 1989), which is frequently released in the form of earthquakes from time to time. The available historical database (Rahman et al 2017) indicates that many catastrophic earthquakes have occurred in this region (Table 1). These destructive earthquakes caused substantial casualties and financial loss in the affected neighboring countries. The extreme destructive power of earthquakes endangers life and properties (Xiwei, 2010). One of the recent and most devastating earthquakes, i.e., the Gorkha earthquake (M~7.8), occurred in the central Himalaya on 25th April 2015. This earthquake caused approximately 9000 casualties, destroying thousands of buildings and causing substantial economic losses (Bilham, 2015)
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