Abstract
Historical and instrumental data of the last five centuries show that major earthquakes in the Marmara Sea area are followed by high strong‐earthquake seismicity in the Aegean area. During the first phase of this excitation period, which lasts about 3 years, strong shallow earthquakes concentrate almost exclusively along the Northern Boundary of the Aegean plate. Within 1–5 years after the first strong earthquake along this boundary, strong‐earthquake seismicity also increases in the Eastern Aegean Boundary. On the basis of current ideas on active tectonics and the previous observations, we expect the generation of several mainshocks with a mean magnitude of M=6.5 along the Northern Aegean Boundary during the next 3 years, following the recent large Izmit (NW Turkey) earthquake (1999.8.17, M=7.4).
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