Abstract
In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.
Highlights
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the standard approach for quantifying the likelihood that ground shaking will exceed various levels during a given time window
The other tasks were: “input data” which was in charge of selecting all the basic data instrumental for the project, to have a common dataset of information; “ground motion model (GMM)” which aimed at identifying the most proper GMMs to be used for MPS19 [details in Lanzano et al, 2020]; “computation and rendering” which was in charge of performing the calculations using the OpenQuake engine [Pagani et al, 2014]; “consistency and scoring” which aimed at verifying the consistency of the MPS19 and its components
The MPS19 project by Meletti et al [2021] aimed at building a new seismic hazard model for Italy, responding to the requirements of the Italian Civil Protection Department to build a time-independent model based on newly available data acquired in the last decades and on reliable, consolidated, and testable components
Summary
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the standard approach for quantifying the likelihood that ground shaking will exceed various levels during a given time window. In 2015, the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro di Pericolosità Sismica, CPS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) was commissioned by the Italian Civil Protection Department to engage and coordinate the national scientific community to elaborate a new seismic hazard model for Italy [Modello di Pericolosita Sismica, MPS19 hereafter, details in Meletti et al, 2021]. Over 40 researchers, self-organized in different working groups, were involved at various stages of the model development These numbers highlight the multidisciplinary approach to model seismic hazard in Italy over the last decade. Uncertainties and issues inherent to ERF development are discussed to serve as a prioritization for future research
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