Earthquake Rupture Forecast Model Construction for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update: Central and Eastern U.S. Fault-Based Source Model

Abstract

Abstract As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), we make modest revisions and additions to the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS) fault-based seismic source model that result in locally substantial hazard changes. The CEUS fault-based source model was last updated as part of the 2014 NSHM and considered new information from the Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities (CEUS-SSCn) Project. Since then, new geologic investigations have led to revised fault and fault-zone inputs, and the release of databases of fault-based sources in the CEUS. We have reviewed these databases and made minor revisions to six of the current fault-based sources in the NSHM, as well as added five new fault-based sources. Implementation of these sources follows the current NSHM methodology for CEUS fault-based sources, as well as the incorporation of a new magnitude–area relationship and updated maximum magnitude and recurrence rate estimates following the methods used by the CEUS-SSCn Project. Seismic hazard sensitivity calculations show some substantial local changes in hazard (−0.4g to 1.1g) due to some of these revisions and additions, especially from the addition of the central Virginia, Joiner ridge, and Saline River sources and revisions made to the Meers and New Madrid sources.