Earthquake Risk Scenarios for the City of Veliko Tarnovo

Abstract

AbstractEarthquakes adversely affect large parts of the Earth. Global seismic risk and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes.In this study, the earthquake risk posed to the city of Veliko Tarnovo (that is known as the historical capital of the Second Bulgarian Empire) is quantified by considering the seismic context of the city that contributes to its hazard and the population exposure. The population, is directly associated with the amount and special distribution of buildings in the city. Risk assessment and its associated management is a most effective approach to estimate the impact of natural hazards on the city of Veliko Tarnovo that exhibits high seismic activity.Earthquake scenarios and social vulnerability metrics are combined in a geographic information system (GIS) to identify the vulnerability of exposed population to the seismic risk, and the locations of areas with high exposure and vulnerability level.The study focuses on earthquake risk identification and assessment while the findings provide some basis for local government to review their susceptibility and preparedness. Spatial distribution of the obtained results is available in GIS format and can be used not only for scientific purposes but also for practical measures to reduce the risk and limit the consequences of a future strong earthquake. The consideration of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on the activities following the disasters.KeywordsSeismic hazardRisk scenarioCity of Veliko Tarnovo