Earthquake Risk Probability Evaluation for Najin Lhasa in Southern Tibet

Abstract

The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method is effectively used in an earthquake risk probability evaluation in seismogenic regions with active faults. In this study, by focusing on the potential seismic source area in Najin Lhasa, southern Tibet, and by incorporating the PSHA method, we determined the seismic activity parameters and discussed the relationship of ground motion attenuation, the seismic hazard probability, and the horizontal bedrock ground motion acceleration peak value under different transcendence probabilities in this area. The calculation results show that the PSHA method divides the potential source area via specific tectonic scales and detailed tectonic markers, which reduces the scale of the potential source area and better reflects the uneven spatial distribution of seismic activity in the vicinity of Najin. The corrected attenuation relationship is also in line with the actual work requirements and is suitable for earthquake risk analysis. In addition, the major influences on the peak acceleration of ground motion in the study area are mainly in the potential source areas of Qushui (M7.5), Dangxiong (M8.5), and Kangma (M7.5). The peak horizontal ground motion acceleration (PGA) with a transcendence probability of 10% in 50 years is 185.9 cm/s2, and that with a transcendence probability of 2% in 50 years is 265.9 cm/s2.