Earthquake risk and inter-temporal fairness: An economic assessment of the national land-use structure

Abstract

Population concentration in metropolitan areas is recognized not only as a factor in earthquake disaster risk, but also as a factor in economic efficiency. In other words, with regard to the geographic concentration of urban functions, there is a trade-off between a reduction in earthquake disaster risk and increased economic efficiency. This suggests that we need a coherent assessment method to enable the development of a better national land-use structure incorporating inter-temporal fairness in the context of earthquake disaster risk.In this study, the impact of the national land-use structure on social welfare is assessed while considering earthquake risk and inter-temporal fairness. The results suggest that a decentralized national land-use structure cannot be justified under the risk-neutral and utilitarian welfare function, but can be justified using a welfare function incorporating inter-temporal fairness.