Abstract
Despite the scientists’ wide efforts to determine earthquake risks all around the world, it is not still possible to predict the exact time, location and magnitude of future earthquakes and aftershocks at the ground surface so precise results are not predictable within near future. The most significant reason for this relates to numerous complexities of earthquake mechanism and causal conditions and waves through different ground layers with completely different properties. Logical tree method was used with weights to determine acceleration spectra due to spectral nature of region. Probabilistic analysis of earthquake hazard was done using SEISRISK III program. The analysis results are proposed through spectral acceleration maps for 50 years in Garmsar. Moreover, uniform hazard spectrum and spectrum with constant shape are presented.
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