Abstract
Supporting earthquake risk management with clear seismic communication may necessitate encounters with various popular misapprehensions regarding earthquake prediction. Drawing on technical data as well as insights from anthropology and economics, this paper addresses common and scientifically-unsupported ideas about earthquake prediction, as well as the state of science-based studies regarding statistical forecasting and physical precursors. The authors reflect on documented social and economic effects of unsubstantiated earthquake predictions, and argue that these may be dangerous but may also present certain opportunities for outreach and education in formal and informal settings. This paper is written in light of the importance that the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has placed on coordination and communication within and among diverse organizations and agencies as well as by recent popularity of so-called earthquake prediction in Mexico.
Highlights
On March 20, 2012 a strong earthquake of magnitude 7.4 struck southern Mexico
Other significant earthquakes around the world were registered: an earthquake of magnitude 6.6 in New Guinea on March 21; an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 in Maule, Chile on March 25; earthquakes of magnitude 8.6 and 5.5 in Sumatra on April 11; an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 in Michoacán, Mexico on April 11; and another of magnitude 6.9 in the Gulf of California on April 12 (USGS 2015). This cluster of activity, though far from unusual, was interpreted by at least one public as empirical confirmation of earthquake predictions (e.g. Univison 2013; Latinospost 2013) which drew not on peer-reviewed scientific research but rather on methods which incorporated the position of the planets, dreams and even the so-called Mayan apocalypse, slated to end this age and begin a new one on December 21 of that year
There is nothing controversial here, nor is there much debate regarding the understanding that a general awareness of a hazard is highly desirable for earthquake risk reduction (FEMA-474, 2005), especially if the members of the population are represented by the possible actions that can be taken (Farley et al 1993; Mileti and Fitzpatrick 1993), and can be an excellent foundation upon which to build further interventions (Gratton et al 1987; Mileti and Fitzpatrick 1992)
Summary
On March 20, 2012 a strong earthquake of magnitude 7.4 struck southern Mexico. Over the days, other significant earthquakes around the world were registered: an earthquake of magnitude 6.6 in New Guinea on March 21; an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 in Maule, Chile on March 25; earthquakes of magnitude 8.6 and 5.5 in Sumatra on April 11; an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 in Michoacán, Mexico on April 11; and another of magnitude 6.9 in the Gulf of California on April 12 (USGS 2015). Giuliani became recognized in social and popular media for the apparent efficacy of the measurements, despite of he had been asked to desist from frightening the society after he had made some incorrect predictions (Hall 2011; Cartlidge 2012) With this scenario, the hypothesis was that the near-failure compression with imminent movement produces emissions of gas radon 222Rn, much as if it is being squeezed from the tectonic plates. In controlled conditions in laboratory tests, the increment of the stress in a rock sample under uniaxial compression had been related with before an increment of the emanations of gas radon 222Rn (Igarashi and Wakita 1995) For this reason, observations of the emanations have been investigated at various places, and different methodologies have developed to relate the radon 222Rn emanation and seismic activity If the probability of event occurrence exists P(M) > 0 and the probability that earthquakes in that geographic region exists P(N) > 0; the conditional probability of N in relation of M is defined as the equation 1
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