Abstract

Following the Newcastle earthquake of December 1989, a consortium of Australian insurance companies commissioned Works Consultancy Services Ltd, New Zealand to undertake earthquake probable maximum loss assessments for the main city centres of Australia. Studies have been completed for the regions around Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane. Customised insurance loss assessment models were developed for each study region, with each including specific analytical models for geography, seismicity, ground conditions, patterns of building construction, and insurance company exposures. The analysis model includes earthquake insurance loss versus shaking intensity relationships derived from Australian and international data, and takes specific building vulnerabilities into account. Loss assessments target the Probable Maximum Loss in relation to return period.

Highlights

  • Coinciding with the occurrence world wide of natural disasters of earthquake and hurricane, the December 1989 Newcastle earthquake insurance losses focused attention on reinsurance for catastrophe losses

  • A customised computerbased analytical model for the Probable Maximum Loss (PML) evaluation of insured earthquake risks was established for each region. and coupled with the insurance data provided, independent PML estimates were assessed for each company

  • Probable Maximum Loss (PML) estimates presented in tabular form for specific return periods, and in continuous graphical form, for each of the total, domestic, and commercial risk portfolios

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Summary

SUMMARY

Following the Newcastle earthquake of December 1989, a consortium of Australian insurance companies commissioned Works Consultancy Services Ltd, New Zealand to undertake earthquake probable maximum loss assessments for the main city centres of Australia. Studies have been completed for the regions around Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane. Customised insurance loss assessment models were developed for each study region, with each including specific analytical models for geography, seismicity, ground conditions, patterns of building construction, and insurance company exposures. The analysis model includes earthquake insurance loss versus shaking intensity relationships derived from Australian and international data, and takes specific building vulnerabilities into account. Loss assessments target the Probable Maximum Loss in relation to return period

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