Abstract
The main goal of this work is to review the scientific researches carried out before and after the Umbria-Marche sequence related to the earthquake forecasting/prediction in Italy. In particular, I focus the attention on models that aim addressing three main practical questions: was (is) Umbria-Marche a region with high probability of occurrence of a destructive earthquake? Was a precursory activity recorded before the mainshock(s)? What was our capability to model the spatio-temporal-magnitude evolution of that seismic sequence? The models are reviewed pointing out what we have learned after the Umbria-Marche earthquakes, in terms of physical understanding of earthquake occurrence process, and of improving our capability to forecast earthquakes and to track in real-time seismic sequences.
Highlights
The italian territory is characterized by a generally high seismic risk
I focus the attention on defining the state of the art on this matter just before the Umbria-Marche earthquake and on the improvements made in the following ten years
I point to the description of three different topics: 1) Large earthquake forecasting models at National scale; W
Summary
The italian territory is characterized by a generally high seismic risk. the strongest earthquakes range only from medium to relatively large magnitudes (up to about 7), the high density of inhabitants and the age and quality of buildings make the vulnerability and exposure rather high. As regards the earthquake forecasting, just few years before the Umbria-Marche events, Boschi et al (1995) published the first probability map on a national scale They used the «official» (at that time) seismogenic zonation derived on the basis of geological/tectonic information (Scandone, 1992), and applied two different mechanisms of earthquake occurrence at some selected zones. A formal validation and comparison among competitive models require the use of pure prospective tests and the definition of a commonly accepted framework in terms of selected area, authorized seismic datasets, etc In this respect, the Italian territory has been very recently added as a «natural testing region», together with California, New Zealand, and western Pacific for CSEP experiments that share the principles just reported. This allows a drastic reduction of the epistemic uncertainty evaluating what is the best performing forecasting model on future seismicity
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