Earthquake Events Modeling Using Multi-criteria Decision Analysis in Iran

Abstract

Kerman Province in Iran is known as an earthquake prone area, with different serious damages. In this study, GIS-based ordered weight averaging (OWA) with fuzzy quantifier algorithm is used to model earthquake events in north of Kerman Province, Iran. For this aim, at first using attraction model was tried to increase DEM resolution from 30 to 10 m. Then, using the mentioned DEM, three layers such as aspect, slope, and elevation was prepared. Also, different layers including lithology, land use, river, road, fault, and earthquake occurrences were prepared in ArcGIS software. Subsequently, the importance of each factor in earthquake events was defined using trapezoidal membership function. Finally, the earthquake events map with different risk level (six levels) was prepared using OWA method. The results showed that with decreasing risk (no trade-off), many parts of the study area had not earthquake events hazard. While, with increasing risk (no trade-off), all of the study area had earthquake events hazard. Low level of risk and no trade-off had the highest area in the very low class (98%), while high level of risk and average trade-off had the highest area in the very low class (15.62%). So, for the study where has high earthquake should use low level risk maps in order to better management and damage decreasing.