Earthquake catastrophe models in disaster response planning, risk mitigation and financing in developing countries in Asia

Abstract

AbstractEarthquake catastrophe models combine simulated earthquake hazard intensity parameters, such as ground-shaking intensity and liquefaction potential, with spatial data layers describing the geography and vulnerability of exposed assets at risk (property, populations and infrastructure) to calculate the probability of loss. There is significant scope for applying catastrophe models to disaster relief planning, risk mitigation and financing, especially for earthquake-prone developing economies in Asia. Potential uses of earthquake catastrophe models in these areas include the following. Estimating probable levels of damage across an area resulting from a range of possible earthquake events. These estimates are useful in assessing the scale of the response required when an earthquake event actually occurs and for devising a realistic plan for the disaster response effort.Quantifying the humanitarian and economic benefit of introducing or upgrading existing risk mitigation measures in advance of their introduction; and assessing the loss potential of possible sites for future infrastructure and/or industrial facilities.Quantifying risk metrics fundamental to the pricing of financial risk transfer solutions that enable the transfer of the cost of relief and reconstruction away from the damaged national economy, thereby cushioning it from financial shock caused by major earthquake damage.