Earnings management as a predictor of future profitability of Finnish firms

Abstract

This study investigates whether the level of current earnings management can be used to predict future profitability of Finnish firms. Earnings management is assumed to predict future profitability, because firms use discretional accruals to manage this year's earnings upwards/downwards, if they believe that the next year's earnings will be high/low. Finnish data are used because the extent of the earnings management can be directly measured from the published Finnish financial statements. The results indicate that the lagged earnings management is significantly related to the future profitability of a firm. The lagged earnings management also contains incremental information relative to past profitability or stock prices when predicting future profitability.