Earnings Forecast Optimism For U.S. Vs. Non-U.S. Firms

Abstract

This study examines whether financial analysts are more optimistic in their earnings forecasts for non-U.S. firms than they are for U.S. firms. Several areas of research motivate this examination. First, research shows that global economic influences, such as economic downturns and the desire to increase the international content of portfolios, encourage investors to seek out international investment opportunities in new markets. Second, literature also reveals that emerging markets provide superior growth potential; however, analyzing such firms could introduce task complexity which research finds to be associated with lower forecast accuracy. Finally, research shows that financial analysts cover firms of which they have a favorable opinion. Therefore, because of this literature, it is reasonable to expect that analysts make more optimistic forecasts (over-estimate errors) of the earnings potential of the non-U.S. firms that they choose to follow vs. U.S. firms. Using a summary level measurement of forecast optimism, the authors find that analysts forecasts are more optimistic for non-U.S. firms over both short and long-term horizons. In analyst-level tests, it was found that individual analysts produce more optimistic forecasts for non-U.S. firms in relation to their peers in the long-term; however, that optimism is reduced under short horizons. As portfolios become more internationally diversified, the result of this study will be useful to investors seeking analyst guidance about international investment opportunities.