Abstract

The existence of endangered tree species in Mexico necessitates an understanding of their vulnerability to the predicted climate changes (warming and drying trends). In this study, the sensitivity to climate of earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) widths of the threatened Picea chihuahuana was determined. The response of EW and LW to climate variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and a drought index) was analyzed by means of correlation analysis using dendrochronology over the period of 1950–2015. EW and LW production were enhanced by cool and wet conditions during winter prior to the start of growing season. During the growing season, EW and LW production increased in response to cool spring and summer conditions, respectively; temperatures and year-round evaporation, excluding summer and the previous drought in the period prior to the growing season. EW was sensitive to seasonal drought, which is a concern considering the predicted aridification trends for the study area. These results provide further knowledge on the dendroecological potential of Picea chihuahuana.

Highlights

  • IntroductionThe implications of forecasted warmer and drier conditions become crucial to predicting forest productivity in Northern Mexico where the frequency of severe drought is expected to increase [4]

  • Climate variability drives forest productivity and tree growth [1,2,3]

  • Knowledge of the ecological responses of these threatened tree species, including the quantification of seasonal radial-growth responses to climate, is still scant [9,10]. We argue that this information is very valuable to improve the conservation of relict or threatened tree species which have to face more arid conditions as those forecasted for Northern

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Summary

Introduction

The implications of forecasted warmer and drier conditions become crucial to predicting forest productivity in Northern Mexico where the frequency of severe drought is expected to increase [4]. This region possesses a floristic diversity recognized worldwide [5], with the presence of endangered conifer species, such as Picea chihuahua. Knowledge of the ecological responses of these threatened tree species, including the quantification of seasonal radial-growth responses to climate, is still scant [9,10].

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