Early-Warning Signals For Cenozoic Climate Transitions

Abstract

<p>Paleoclimatic records document large-scale shifts in the Earth’s climate history. Among other possibilities, these transitions might have been caused by bifurcations in the leading dynamical modes. Such bifurcation-induced critical transitions are typically preceded by characteristic early-warning signals (EWS), for example in terms of rising standard deviation and lag-one autocorrelation. These EWS are caused by the phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) in response to a widening of the underlying basin of attraction as the bifurcation is approached. The presence of EWS prior to an observed transition therefore provides evidence that the transition is caused by a bifurcation. We reveal significant EWS prior to several critical transitions within a paleoclimate record spanning the Cenozoic Era, i.e., the last 67M years. We employed the CENOzoic Global Reference benthic foraminifer carbon and oxygen Isotope Dataset (CENOGRID), comprising two time series of isotope variations of δ<sup>18</sup>O and δ<sup>13</sup>C. The standard deviation and lag-one autocorrelation are estimated in sliding windows for both records, to reveal whether CSD occurs ahead of the major abrupt transitions in these records. Specifically, we detect significant EWS for five out of nine previously identified transitions in at least one of the two available records. EWS are recognized for significant increases in both CSD indicators prior to the transition. Our results hence suggest that at least five major climate transitions of the last 67 Ma were triggered by bifurcations in leading modes of variability, indicating bifurcations have likely played a key role in the deep-time evolution of the Earth's climate system.</p>