Abstract
Abstract. This study develops a model for early warning of snow-caused livestock disasters on a county basis and proposes a method of qualitative risk assessment of snow disasters at 500 m resolution for pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Data used for the model development include remote sensing data, statistical data of weather, livestock, and social economy, and 45 typical snow disaster cases from 2000 to 2010. The principal component analysis (PCA) approach is used to choose 7 crucial factors that contribute over 85% of information for early warning snow disasters on the TP. They are mean annual probability of snow disaster, number of snow-covered days, livestock stocking rate, continual days of mean daily temperature below −10 °C, grassland burial index, rate of snow-covered grassland, and per livestock gross domestic product. The chosen 411 cases from 2008 to 2010 are used to validate the prediction results from the developed early warning model, with an overall accuracy of 85.64% in predicting snow disasters and no disasters. This suggests that the early warning approach developed in the study has operational potential for predicting snow disasters on the TP.
Highlights
IntroductionThe premise fHor yandorpoerlaotigonyalasnnowd disaster warning system is snow disaster tmo o(n1i)toersitnagbEldisaahtarabthalosenSsg-aytnesdrmtmesamenraiegsemofenret giinofnoar-l
The premise fHor yandorpoerlaotigonyalasnnowd disaster warning system is snow disaster tmo o(n1i)toersitnagbEldisaahtarabthalosenSsg-aytnesdrmtmesamenraiegsemofenret giinofnoar-lSnow cover is an important part of land cover and one of the most active natural elements on the Earth surface
Warning and risk assessment of snow disasters in pastoral areas play an important role in loss relief and sustainable development of regional grassland husbandry
Summary
The premise fHor yandorpoerlaotigonyalasnnowd disaster warning system is snow disaster tmo o(n1i)toersitnagbEldisaahtarabthalosenSsg-aytnesdrmtmesamenraiegsemofenret giinofnoar-l. Many studies have been conducted on snow cover area monitoring (Gutzler and Rosen, 1992; Hall et al, 2001; Liang et al, 2008b; Wang and Xie, 2009; Gao et al, 2010; Paudel et al, 2011), snow depth (SD) simulation (Stowe et al, 1991; Chang et al, 1996; Che et al, 2012; Frei et al, 2012; Yu et al, 2012), snow disaster risk assessment (Romanov et al, 2002), loss evaluation post-disaster (i.e., the research for the pastoral areas after snow disasters have occurred and have resulted in losses of livestock) (Nakamura and Shindo, 2001), snow disaster and avalanche mapping, as well as their relations to climate change (Jones and Jamieson, 2001; Hendrikx et al, 2005; Bocchiola et al, 2008; Delparte et al, 2008; Hirashima et al, 2008; Lato et al, 2012). This study would provide a scientific basis for early warning, risk assessment, and decisionmaking of disaster prevention and relief management for the research community and local governments
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