Early summer temperatures reconstructed from black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) tree-ring widths from Albania

Abstract

The first regional chronology of black pine ( Pinus nigra Arnold) from Albania, its response to climate and a 428-year long reconstruction of June–July temperatures for the 1583–2010 period are presented. Samples were collected at five locations from the north to the south of Albania. We constructed a 552-year long Pinus nigra chronology with sufficient sample depth for potential climate reconstruction from 1583 to 2010 (428 years). Response to precipitation was significant only for July of the current year (0.23), while a clear temperature response to the May–August period was identified, with July having by far the highest correlation (−0.47). When combined, June–July temperatures had the highest correlation of all tested combinations ( r = −0.63), explaining almost 40% of the tree-ring width variability. The test of the climate signal temporal stability using a 31-year running correlation highlighted the very stable relationship between tree-ring indices and June–July temperatures. The spatial extent of the regional Pinus nigra chronology tested, using a field correlation function, showed very high spatial correlation over a large part of the Balkan Peninsula and even southern Italy. Based on high explained variance between tree-ring indices and June–July temperatures and significant values of reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency statistics (CE; 0.62 and 0.25 in the calibration period), a linear model was developed, with June–July temperatures reconstructed for the 1583–2010 period. Our reconstruction and identified extreme years were compared with various temperature, drought and precipitation reconstructions from nearby regions, as well as data from documentary archives. We confirmed a high degree of similarity of our reconstruction with other reconstructions and documentary data.