Early sowing systems can boost Australian wheat yields despite recent climate change

Abstract

Price surges in staple foods trigger civil unrest and conflict1. The food riots of 2007–2008 and Arab spring uprisings (2010–2012) were, in part, a consequence of price increases due to a tightening supply of staple grains, particularly wheat. Prolonged drought in Australia contributed to the global wheat shortage; Australia accounts for 10% of global wheat exports2. Australian wheat yields have plateaued3 owing to reduced rainfall4,5 and increasing temperatures3 attributed to anthropogenic climate change6. If Australia is to increase wheat production in line with projected global population growth and demand, an increase in yield is required7. Crop simulations reveal that an early sowing system combined with slower-developing wheat genotypes could exploit a longer growing season8. We developed near-isogenic lines and tested this hypothesis in experiments across the grain belt of Australia, and extended the results using whole-farm simulations. Our proposed early sowing system can increase national yields by 0.54 (s.d. = 0.38) t ha−1 representing an additional 7.1 Mt annually under reduced rainfall and increasing temperature regimes. This adaptation could facilitate increasing yields across Australia under climate change with global food security benefits. Crop models suggest that early sowing and slower-developing cultivars could maintain Australian wheat yields despite less-favourable climatic conditions. Field trials now confirm the potential of this adaptation for wheat production across Australia.