Abstract
BackgroundSocial distancing have been widely used to mitigate community spread of SARS-CoV-2. We sought to quantify the impact of COVID-19 social distancing policies across 27 European counties in spring 2020 on population mobility and the subsequent trajectory of disease.MethodsWe obtained data on national social distancing policies from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and aggregated and anonymized mobility data from Google. We used a pre-post comparison and two linear mixed-effects models to first assess the relationship between implementation of national policies and observed changes in mobility, and then to assess the relationship between changes in mobility and rates of COVID-19 infections in subsequent weeks.ResultsCompared to a pre-COVID baseline, Spain saw the largest decrease in aggregate population mobility (~70%), as measured by the time spent away from residence, while Sweden saw the smallest decrease (~20%). The largest declines in mobility were associated with mandatory stay-at-home orders, followed by mandatory workplace closures, school closures, and non-mandatory workplace closures. While mandatory shelter-in-place orders were associated with 16.7% less mobility (95% CI: -23.7% to -9.7%), non-mandatory orders were only associated with an 8.4% decrease (95% CI: -14.9% to -1.8%). Large-gathering bans were associated with the smallest change in mobility compared with other policy types. Changes in mobility were in turn associated with changes in COVID-19 case growth. For example, a 10% decrease in time spent away from places of residence was associated with 11.8% (95% CI: 3.8%, 19.1%) fewer new COVID-19 cases.DiscussionThis comprehensive evaluation across Europe suggests that mandatory stay-at-home orders and workplace closures had the largest impacts on population mobility and subsequent COVID-19 cases at the onset of the pandemic. With a better understanding of policies’ relative performance, countries can more effectively invest in, and target, early nonpharmacological interventions.
Highlights
Non-pharmacological policies aimed at improving physical distancing, such as shelter in place orders or gathering bans, have been widely used to mitigate the spread of airborne pathogens, in the early stages of a pandemic
Compared to a pre-COVID baseline, Spain saw the largest decrease in aggregate population mobility (~70%), as measured by the time spent away from residence, while Sweden saw the smallest decrease (~20%)
While mandatory shelter-in-place orders were associated with 16.7% less mobility, non-mandatory orders
Summary
Non-pharmacological policies aimed at improving physical distancing, such as shelter in place orders or gathering bans, have been widely used to mitigate the spread of airborne pathogens, in the early stages of a pandemic. There are often significant social and economic costs associated with social distancing policies [1, 2] In this context, understanding the effectiveness of different types of policies employed during the first wave of the pandemic can be used to inform the decisions of policymakers weighing the costs of future lockdowns against the need to better mitigate the early spread of pandemic disease. Not unique to Europe, understanding the relative effectiveness of mandatory vs non-mandatory social distancing measures would enable public health officials across Europe and elsewhere to better implement early pandemic mitigation strategies in the future. We sought to quantify the impact of COVID-19 social distancing policies across 27 European counties in spring 2020 on population mobility and the subsequent trajectory of disease
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