Abstract
AimThe COVID-19 pandemic presents serious threats to global public health and the world economy. Therefore, the rapid escalation of the number of cases has led to national government and global interventions. This study aimed to assess the effect of school closures on the COVID-19 pandemic and epidemic trajectories in selected countries.Subject and methodsInformation on the number of cases and population in each country were taken from official government reports. Dates of educational institutions closure were taken from the UNESCO database. Statistical analyses were performed using Statistica. We summarized the data graphically and descriptively.ResultsMost of the European countries closed schools in the period of 11–20 of March 2020. However, there was a big difference in the phase of the epidemic on the day of closure. The data indicate that there was a strong correlation between the day of educational facilities closure and the incidence rate in the following days (16th, 30th, and 60th days since the 100th confirmed case in each country). Early closure of schools in analyzed countries is statistically significantly correlated with lower incidence rates further on during the different phases of the epidemic. Thereby closure of schools with delay is statistically significantly correlated with a higher incidence rate in the following days.ConclusionThe available data suggest that school closures can potentially reduce transmission during the pandemic, although more research is needed on the effectiveness of these practices.
Highlights
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus was detected in three patients with pneumonia in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province in central China
Closure of schools in analyzed countries is statistically significantly correlated with lower incidence rates further on during the different phases of the epidemic
Thereby closure of schools with delay is statistically significantly correlated with a higher incidence rate in the following days
Summary
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus was detected in three patients with pneumonia in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province in central China. The rapid escalation of the number of cases has led to national government and global interventions, such as closing public spaces, banning travel, and quarantining. These often infringe on individual rights, freedoms, and disrupt the regular activity in the interests of limiting the spread of the epidemic. Most governments instituted a temporary closure of national educational institutions in an attempt to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. These nationwide closures impacted over 91% of the world’s student population (UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) database 2020). This paper reflects on the impact of school closure on COVID-19 epidemic trajectories in selected countries to establish its effect on transmission
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