Abstract
International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.
Highlights
Among scenarios that succeed in stabilizing global mean temperatures at less than 2 ◦ C warmer than the preindustrial era, CO2 emissions from the power sector decrease rapidly in the coming decades, in almost all cases reaching net-zero before mid-century [1–5]
Our results suggest that climate scenarios which are stabilize global temperatures in the range of 1.5 ◦ C
It is generally understood that CO2 emitting infrastructure will need to be swiftly decommissioned in order to mitigate the most extreme consequences of climate change, the extent to which climate mitigation scenarios rely on the premature retirement of existing plants and the curtailment of future construction is not widely known
Summary
Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States of America. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AV The Hague, The Netherlands. Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Via Bergognone 34, I-20144 Milan, Italy. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany. Chair of Global Energy Systems, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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