Early regression index (ERI) on MR images as response predictor in esophageal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy: Interim analysis of the prospective ESCAPE trial

Abstract

PurposeThe early regression index (ERI) predicts treatment response in rectal cancer patients. Aim of current study was to prospectively assess tumor response to neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (nCRT) of locally advanced esophageal cancer using ERI, based on MRI. Material and methodsFrom January 2020 to May 2023, 30 patients with esophageal cancer were enrolled in a prospective study (ESCAPE). PET-MRI was performed: i) before nCRT (tpre); ii) at mid-radiotherapy, tmid; iii) after nCRT, 2–6 weeks before surgery (tpost); nCRT delivered 41.4 Gy/23fr with concurrent carboplatin and paclitaxel. For patients that skipped surgery, complete clinical response (cCR) was assessed if patients showed no local relapse after 18 months; patients with pathological complete response (pCR) or with cCR were considered as complete responders (pCR + cCR). GTV volumes were delineated by two observers (Vpre, Vmid, Vpost) on T2w MRI: ERI and other volume regression parameters at tmid and tpost were tested as predictors of pCR + cCR. ResultsComplete data of 25 patients were available at the time of the analysis: 3/25 with complete response at imaging refused surgery and 2/3 were cCR; in total, 10/25 patients showed pCR + cCR (pCR = 8/22). Both ERImid and ERIpost classified pCR + cCR patients, with ERImid showing better performance (AUC:0.78, p = 0.014): A two-variable logistic model combining ERImid and Vpre improved performances (AUC:0.93, p < 0.0001). Inter-observer variability in contouring GTV did not affect the results. ConclusionsDespite the limited numbers, interim analysis of ESCAPE study suggests ERI as a potential predictor of complete response after nCRT for esophageal cancer. Further validation on larger populations is warranted.