Abstract
e16530 Background: Changes in PSA are widely used as a biomarker for the monitoring of treatment outcome in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) in the clinical real-world setting. Early PSA changes (before 12 weeks) are not considered in the definition of PSA Progression (PSAProg) due to the potential for spurious “flare” reactions. We aimed to evaluate the significance of an early PSA increase in Abiraterone/Enzalutamide (Abi/Enz)-treated mCRPC patients (pts). Methods: We retrospectively evaluated Abi/Enz-treated mCRPC pts from 11 hospitals between 2011-2018. Early PSAProg was defined as a 25% increase in PSA from baseline at 4 (PSAProg4) or 8 (PSAProg8) weeks after treatment initiation. PSA progression at 12 weeks (PSAProg12) was confirmed by a second reading. Uni- and multivariable (MV) Cox regression models were conducted to explore the association of PSAProg and overall (OS) and radiographic progression-free (rPFS) survival. Sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp) and predictive values (PPV, NPV) for the association of early PSAProg with PSAProg12 were calculated. Results: We analyzed 581 mCRPC pts; median follow-up: 19.1 months. 96 (17.1%); 105 (21.6%) and 85 (16.9%) pts had PSAprog at 4, 8 and 12 wks. PSAProg4 and PSAProg8 were significantly associated with confirmed PSAProg12. 55.3% of pts with PSAProg4 and 66.7% of pts with PSAProg8 had a confirmed PSAProg12. Only 9% of pts with no PSA prog at 4 wks and 4.1% of pts with no PSAProg8 had a confirmed PSAProg12. PSAProg4 had Se: 56.6%, Sp: 90.5%, PPV: 55.2%, NPV: 91% for the detection of PSAProg12. PSAProg8 had Se: 81.9%, Sp: 91.2%, PPV: 66.7%, NPV: 95.9% for the detection of PSAProg12. PSAprog at 4, 8 and 12 wks was significantly associated with OS and rPFS in uni- and MV Cox models (Table). Conclusions: Early PSAProg after Abi/Enz is significantly associated with both confirmed PSA Prog at 12 wks and outcome, and may help identify pts not benefitting from Abi/Enz before clinical or radiographic progression. Prospective validation studies are needed. [Table: see text]
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