Early Postseroconversion CD4 Cell Counts Independently Predict CD4 Cell Count Recovery in HIV-1–Postive Subjects Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy

Abstract

The relationship between CD4 T-cell counts determined soon after seroconversion with HIV-1 (baseline CD4), nadir CD4, and CD4 levels attained during highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is unknown. Longitudinal, including baseline (at or soon after HIV diagnosis), intermediate (nadir), and distal (post-HAART) CD4 T-cell counts were assessed in 1085 seroconverting subjects who achieved viral load suppression from a large well-characterized cohort. The association of baseline with post-HAART CD4 T-cell count was determined after adjustment for other relevant covariates. A higher baseline CD4 T-cell count predicted a greater post-HAART CD4 T-cell count, independent of the nadir and other explanatory variables. Together, baseline and nadir strongly predicted the post-HAART CD4 count such that a high baseline and lower nadir were associated with a maximal immune recovery after HAART. Likelihood of recovery of the baseline count after HAART was significantly higher when the nadir/baseline count ratio was consistently ≥ 0.6. Among viral load suppressing seroconverters, the absolute CD4 T-cell count attained post-HAART is highly dependent on both baseline and nadir CD4 T-cell counts. These associations further support the early diagnosis and initiation of HAART among HIV-infected persons.