Early evaluations of BISAP socre plus Obesity in predicting acute pancreatitis

Abstract

Objective To explore bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score plus obesity to assess the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis. Methods 134 acute pancreatitis patients who visited emergency department of our hospital during March 2016 to May 2017 were enrolled in the study. The BISAP score, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference were recorded. Mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), moderately severe acute panceatitis (MSAP), severe acute panceatitis (SAP), death toll and their proportion, the relationship between severity and the type of obesity were compared in different BISAP scores. The BISAP and BISAP+ obesity scores were used to predict the SAP and the ROC curve of death, and to assess the predictive value of BISAP combined with obesity for AP. Results With BISAP score rising, both severity and mortality increased in acute pancreatitis; Compare with non-central obesity , central obesity are more susceptible to SAP (χ2=7.551, P=0.006); AUC of BISAP score and BISAP+ obesity score for predicting SAP is 0.779 and 0.791, the sensitivity is 87.9% and 77.8% , the specificity is 55.4% and 87.1%, the positive predictive value is 39.2% and 60.6%, the negative predictive value is 93.3% and 87.1%.AUC of BISAP score and BISAP+ obesity score for predicting death is 0.882 and 0.900. Conclusions BISAP score plus obesity has a better early predictive value than BISAP sore for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis. Key words: Pancreatitis; Obesity; Severity of illness index; Prognosis