Early estimates of the incidence trend and the reproductive number of the monkeypox epidemic in Brazil

Abstract

BackgroundWe aimed to calculate the weekly growth of the incidence and the effective reproductive number (Rt) of the 2022 Monkeypox epidemic during its introduction in Brazil. MethodWe described the case distribution in the country and calculated the incidence trend and the Rt in the four geographical states with the highest case reports. By using two regression approaches, count model and the Prais-Winsten, we calculated the relative incidence increase. Moreover, we estimated the Rt for the period between the 24th and the 50th days after the first official report, using a serial interval reported in another population and two alternative values (± 3 days). ResultsUp to August 22, 3.896 Monkeypox cases were confirmed in Brazil. The weekly incidence increases were between 37.5% (95% CI: 20.7% - 56,6%) and 82.1% (95% CI: 59.5%–107.8%), and all estimates of Rt were significantly higher than 1 in the four states analyzed. ConclusionsThe Monkeypox outbreak in Brazil is a significant public health emergency that requires coordinated public health strategies such as testing, contact tracing, and vaccination.