Early diagnosis of candidemia with explainable machine learning on automatically extracted laboratory and microbiological data: results of the AUTO-CAND project

Abstract

Background Candidemia is associated with a heavy burden of morbidity and mortality in hospitalized patients. The availability of blood culture results could require up to 48–72 h after blood draw; thus, early treatment decisions are made in the absence of a definite diagnosis. Methods In this retrospective study, we assessed the performance of different supervised machine learning algorithms for the early differential diagnosis of candidemia and bacteremia in adult patients on a large dataset automatically extracted within the AUTO-CAND project. Results Overall, 12,483 episodes of candidemia (1275; 10%) or bacteremia (11,208; 90%) were included in the analysis. A random forest classifier achieved the best diagnostic performance for candidemia, with sensitivity 0.98 and specificity 0.65 on the training set (true skill statistic [TSS] = 0.63) and sensitivity 0.74 and specificity 0.57 on the test set (TSS = 0.31). Then, the random classifier was trained in the subgroup of patients with available serum β-D-glucan (BDG) and procalcitonin (PCT) values by exploiting the feature ranking learned in the entire dataset. Although no statistically significant differences were observed from the performance measures obtained by employing BDG and PCT alone, the performance measures of the classifier that included the features selected in the entire dataset, plus BDG and PCT, were the highest in most cases. Conclusions Random forest classifiers trained on large datasets of automatically extracted data have the potential to improve current diagnostic algorithms for candidemia. However, further development through implementation of automatically extracted clinical features may be necessary to achieve crucial improvements.