Abstract
Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.
Highlights
Transitions between alternative states, i.e., regime shifts, have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems [1,2], including ecosystems [3]
Needed for short-term management efforts to maintain key ecosystem goods and services, empirical applications of early detection of abrupt shifts in real ecosystems have so far mainly been limited to experimental studies [5,6] or paleo-climatic reconstructions over vast temporal scales [7,8]
The reason for opposite patterns in spatial coefficient of variation (CV) may originate from the pronounced differences in abundance trends, i.e., illustrating a decrease in Pseudocalanus acuspes (Figure 1B) and increase in Acartia spp. (Figure 1C), where decreasing abundances may increase spatial CVs and vice versa
Summary
Transitions between alternative states, i.e., regime shifts, have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems [1,2], including ecosystems [3]. Since ecological monitoring records are typically of limited length, lack detailed information on spatial distribution patterns of key organisms, and often include substantial measurement error, the practical use of any of the proposed early-warning indicators for ecosystem management may prove problematic. Given that these limitations can lead to both false positive and false negative signals [3], the use of multiple spatial and temporal indicators should ideally be considered [16] and alternative methods should be tested [12]. Studies of early-warning signals in real ecosystems have so-far been restricted to only a narrow range of possible temporal [8] or spatial indicators [17]
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