Abstract
For a given carbon budget over several decades, different transformation rates for the energy system yield starkly different results. Here we consider a budget of 33 GtCO2 for the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from the European electricity, heating, and transport sectors between 2020 and 2050, which represents Europe’s contribution to the Paris Agreement. We have found that following an early and steady path in which emissions are strongly reduced in the first decade is more cost-effective than following a late and rapid path in which low initial reduction targets quickly deplete the carbon budget and require a sharp reduction later. We show that solar photovoltaic, onshore and offshore wind can become the cornerstone of a fully decarbonised energy system and that installation rates similar to historical maxima are required to achieve timely decarbonisation. Key to those results is a proper representation of existing balancing strategies through an open, hourly-resolved, networked model of the sector-coupled European energy system.
Highlights
For a given carbon budget over several decades, different transformation rates for the energy system yield starkly different results
The baseline analysis assumes that district heating penetration remains constant at present values, annual heat demand is constant throughout the transition paths, and power transmission
When district heating (DH) is assumed to expand linearly so that in 2050 it supplies the entire urban heating demand in every country, cumulative system cost for the Early and Steady path reduces by 2.4%
Summary
For a given carbon budget over several decades, different transformation rates for the energy system yield starkly different results. We show that solar photovoltaic, onshore and offshore wind can become the cornerstone of a fully decarbonised energy system and that installation rates similar to historical maxima are required to achieve timely decarbonisation Key to those results is a proper representation of existing balancing strategies through an open, hourly-resolved, networked model of the sector-coupled European energy system. A vast body of literature shows that a power system based on wind, solar and hydro generation can supply hourly electricity demand in Europe as long as proper balancing is provided[12,13,14,15] This can be done by reinforcing interconnections among neighbouring countries[16] to smooth renewable fluctuations by regional aggregation or through temporal balancing using local storage[17,18,19]. Coupling the power system with other sectors could provide additional flexibilities facilitating the system operation and simultaneously helping to abate emissions in those sectors[20,21,22]
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