Early Colorectal Cancer Detected by Machine Learning Model Using Gender, Age, and Complete Blood Count Data

Abstract

BackgroundMachine learning tools identify patients with blood counts indicating greater likelihood of colorectal cancer and warranting colonoscopy referral.AimsTo validate a machine learning colorectal cancer detection model on a US community-based insured adult population.MethodsEligible colorectal cancer cases (439 females, 461 males) with complete blood counts before diagnosis were identified from Kaiser Permanente Northwest Region’s Tumor Registry. Control patients (n = 9108) were randomly selected from KPNW’s population who had no cancers, received at ≥1 blood count, had continuous enrollment from 180 days prior to the blood count through 24 months after the count, and were aged 40–89. For each control, one blood count was randomly selected as the pseudo-colorectal cancer diagnosis date for matching to cases, and assigned a “calendar year” based on the count date. For each calendar year, 18 controls were randomly selected to match the general enrollment’s 10-year age groups and lengths of continuous enrollment. Prediction performance was evaluated by area under the curve, specificity, and odds ratios.ResultsArea under the receiver operating characteristics curve for detecting colorectal cancer was 0.80 ± 0.01. At 99% specificity, the odds ratio for association of a high-risk detection score with colorectal cancer was 34.7 (95% CI 28.9–40.4). The detection model had the highest accuracy in identifying right-sided colorectal cancers.ConclusionsColonFlag® identifies individuals with tenfold higher risk of undiagnosed colorectal cancer at curable stages (0/I/II), flags colorectal tumors 180–360 days prior to usual clinical diagnosis, and is more accurate at identifying right-sided (compared to left-sided) colorectal cancers.