Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic.

David J Price,Robert Moss,Nick Golding,Jodie Mcvernon,Eamon J Conway,James M Mccaw,James Wood,Emma Mcbryde,Sam Abbott,Peter Dawson,Michael T Meehan,Deborah Cromer,Freya M Shearer

doi:10.7554/elife.58785

Abstract

As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).

Highlights

A small cluster of cases of the disease known as COVID-19 was first reported on December 29, 2019, in the Chinese city of Wuhan (World Health Organization, 2020a)
The estimated time-varying Reff value is based on cases that have been identified as a result of local transmission, whereas imported cases only contribute to the force of infection
Our analysis suggests that Australia’s combined strategy of early, targeted management of the risk of importation, case targeted interventions, and broad-scale social distancing measures applied prior to the onset of widespread community transmission has substantially mitigated the first wave of COVID-19

Summary

Introduction

A small cluster of cases of the disease known as COVID-19 was first reported on December 29, 2019, in the Chinese city of Wuhan (World Health Organization, 2020a). By early May 2020, the disease had spread to all global regions, and overwhelmed some the world’s most developed health systems. More than 2.8 million cases and 260,000 deaths had been confirmed globally, and the vast majority of countries with confirmed cases were reporting escalating transmission (World Health Organization, 2020b)

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