E‐mobility in Slovakia by 2030—End of oil dependency?

Abstract

AbstractMore European countries seriously depend on oil supplies from Russia primarily via one pipeline, which makes energy security weaker. This energy balance brings a massive problem for the import intensity; therefore, e‐mobility might be a potential solution for the trade deficits of many European countries. Battery Electric Vehicles and Plug‐In Hybrid Electric vehicles have been introduced within the priorities of the EC but also by car manufacturing companies worldwide. By 2050, massive growth of Electric vehicles (EVs) is expected, and significant changes in favour of electric cars have to be observed in new car sales till 2030. The article's main objective is to investigate whether and to what extent new sales of e‐cars bring lower oil imports to Slovakia. The authors use three scenarios (based on regression models) differentiating market force intensity and regulation stringency till 2030. The significant findings of the models provide an estimated number of EVs on Slovak roads in 2030 and significant oil import cuts stemming from oil import substitution. The conclusion suggests that by 2030, Slovak oil imports will only slightly decrease due to e‐mobility penetration, even in the most optimistic scenario.