Abstract
BackgroundCurrently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA). A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states) and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible) to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment), we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies.Methods and ResultsDYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures – e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy – and detailed data – e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates – by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking.ConclusionBy combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based on epidemiologic evidence.
Highlights
Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a combination of procedures, methods, and tools that judges the effect of programs, projects, or policies on overall population health and the distributional effects within a population [1]
By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based on epidemiologic evidence
DYNAMO-HIA has a parameter estimation module, mostly using methods taken from the Chronic Disease Model of Dutch National Institute for Public Health (RIVM-CDM) [12], reducing data needs substantially
Summary
Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a combination of procedures, methods, and tools that judges the effect of (intended) programs, projects, or policies on overall population health and the distributional effects within a population [1]. For the quantification step in HIA, a generic modeling tool – i.e. allowing for various and multiple chronic diseases and arbitrary risk-factors – that takes into account the standard causal pathway assumed in HIA has been lacking [9]. No standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA). A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states) and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible) to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment), we introduce such a generic software tool designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies
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