DYNAMICS OF UKRAINIAN-GERMAN RELATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF CHANGES IN GERMAN POLITICS

Abstract

The article analyzes the current foreign policy of Germany and how it is influenced by domestic political developments as well as changes in the international arena. Germany, as a key player in Europe, remains declaratively consistent in its support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russian revisionism. However, a deeper analysis of the geopolitical and domestic position of Germany demonstrates certain risks to the stability of Ukraine-Germany relations.Attention is given to the dependence of Ukraine-Germany relations of Russia-Germany relations. Traditionally active economic ties between Berlin and Moscow have been increasing despite European and American sanctions against Russia. This leads to the strengthening of the pro-Russian lobby in German political circles. It is highlighted that the planned completion of the construction of Nord Stream-2, the dependence of Germany on the supplies of Russian hydrocarbons and the augmentation of net direct investments of German companies in Russian economy illustrates German endeavor, primarily in its geopolitical interests, to normalize relations with Russian Federation. Moreover, the article emphasizes the crisis of German political leadership which is connected with the end of the 4th mandate of the chancellor Angela Merkel in 2021 and the rise of anti-system and populist movements in Germany that may shatter political support of Ukraine. The changes in the Euro-Atlantic region are mentioned separately, namely the issue of defence spending of Germany in the framework of NATO and the consequences of Brexit.In the context of the mentioned elements of German politics, several challenges for Ukraine, that may significantly weaken its position in the international arena, are determined. A complex foreign and domestic situation can remove Ukrainian issue from the agenda and encourage Berlin to take quick «comfortable» measures in the context of the war in the East of Ukraine. On this basis, the article suggests recommendations on ways of reacting to the current developments in Germany from the side of Ukraine as well as on adjusting foreign policy towards this state with due regard to the mentioned tendencies.