Abstract
Transmission potential and severity of pneumonic plague in Madagascar were assessed. Accounting for reporting delay, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.73. The case fatality risk was estimated as 5.5%. Expected numbers of exported cases from Madagascar were estimated across the world and all estimates were below 1 person from August to October, 2017.
Highlights
Assuming that the current pneumonic plague epidemic has been driven by an index case [4,10], we focus on pneumonic plague data and assume that all cases of pneumonic plague were generated by human-to-human transmission
Madagascar (IPM); R0: basic (A) The basic reproduction number of pneumonic plague outbreak in Madagascar as estimated either from the epidemic curve reported on 21 October by Institut Pasteur de Madagascar (IPM) or the epidemic curve reported on 24 October 2017 by AFRO
R0 was estimated to range from 1.12 to 1.72 using single epidemic curves by IPM and AFRO reported on 21 October and 24 October 2017, respectively, and assuming a constant growth rate of cases
Summary
For each of the IPM and AFRO datasets, we used different epidemic curves of pneumonic plague (Figure 1).
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