Dynamics of the Main Indicators of Tuberculosis Epidemiology in Bukovina, the Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Wartime Conditions

Abstract

According to the WHO, Ukraine is one of the 27 countries in the world where 85 % of the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) is concentrated, and it ranks 4th in the world in terms of its prevalence. Objective — to analyze the regional epidemiological characteristics of TB in the Chernivtsi region under the influence of unfavorable socio-economic factors. Materials and methods. The medical records of all newly diagnosed tuberculosis cases registered at the Chernivtsi Regional Clinical Tuberculosis Dispensary from January 2021 to December 2022 were analyzed. Statistical processing of the data obtained during the research was conducted using the IBM SPSS Statistics v26.0 program. Results and discussion. Tuberculosis incidence among the adult population has significantly increased. The lockdown situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the conditions of martial law have had a negative impact on TB prevalence. An analysis of TB prevalence in Bukovina revealed a decrease of this indicator by 25.9 % in 2020 compared to 2019, by 1.5 % in 2021 compared to 2020, but there was a substantial increase of 16.1 % in 2022. Conclusions. In the Chernivtsi region, from 2019 to 2022, there has been a noticeable trend of a significant decrease in the incidence rate of tuberculosis, both during this period and in the conditions of martial law, aligning with the national trend. Due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, the number of newly diagnosed TB cases decreased in 2020 compared to 2019, which led to the accumulation of undiagnosed and latent TB cases, which were detected more, in late stages and in more severe forms and showed an indicative probable increase in the number of active cases in 2022. The mortality rate in Bukovina was 4.7 per 100,000 population in 2021, and 4.4 per 100,000 population in 2022, i. e. it shows a downward tendency under the negative influence of socio-economic factors.