Dynamics of technological change: nuclear energy and electric vehicles in France

Abstract

Technological change is shaped by a confluence of processes that are governed by socio-political, economic, and regulatory factors within a region. In this paper, the authors present a theoretical framework to describe the dynamics of technology change. Based on a qualitative modelling approach, the authors employ concepts from literature on innovation, technology adoption, and technological change, and map reinforcing and retarding cycles of processes of innovation. The way these processes (or functions) are interconnected and combined hinders or enables the overall success of technology diffusion and shapes the long-term outcome for the new technology. The authors develop the framework with examples of energy systems in UK and UAE, and apply the model to examine two cases of nuclear power and electric vehicles in France. They highlight the role as well as limits of policy in initiating and sustaining reinforcing cycles for new technology diffusion and can provide a basis for forming expectations about emerging technologies.