Dynamics of tax revenues in the budget of Ukraine and their forecast during the crisis period

Oleh Skorba,Tetyana Pasko,Viktoriia Babenko-Levada,Tetiana Tereshchenko

doi:10.21511/pmf.10(1).2021.09

Abstract

It is extremely important for the budget process to obtain accurate forecasts of potential tax revenues, especially in periods of disruption and crisis. The paper is devoted to the study of dynamics of tax revenues’ volumes in the budget of Ukraine and the forecast of their values during the crisis.The dynamics of tax revenues in the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine, studied by using randomized R|S-analysis, fractal and probabilistic analyses as well as entropy calculation based on the data on monthly tax revenues for the period 2011–2021, is anti-persistent, fractal-like and unpredictable based on parametric dependencies, simple and complex trends. The topological dimension of the lines of dynamics for tax revenues of all types of taxes is much higher than 1, and the Hirst index indicates either fractal similarity of dynamics or its chaos. The map of dissipation periods of tax revenues in Ukraine, determined on the basis of entropy calculation and periods of negative entropy production according to the dynamics of tax revenues, coincided with the periods of maximum reduction in their volumes. The most crisis periods in the formation of tax revenues are 2019–2020, for certain types of taxes – 2016–2020, but the dissipation of tax revenues is projected for 2021–2022.The comparison of the level of fractal similarity in dynamics of the volume of tax revenues and peculiarities of the dynamics of entropy and entropy production, allowed to substantiate the division of taxes into nine types, of which five were found in Ukraine.

Highlights

The main source of financial resources of the state are tax revenues, the adequacy of which determines the ability of the state to perform its security functions, regulate economic development, and meet social needs of the population
The dynamics of tax revenues in the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine, studied by using randomized R|S-analysis, fractal and probabilistic analyses as well as entropy calculation based on the data on monthly tax revenues for the period 2011–2021, is anti-persistent, fractal-like and unpredictable based on parametric dependencies, simple and complex trends
The map of dissipation periods of tax revenues in Ukraine, determined on the basis of entropy calculation and periods of negative entropy production according to the dynamics of tax revenues, coincided with the periods of maximum reduction in their volumes

Summary

INTRODUCTION

The main source of financial resources of the state are tax revenues, the adequacy of which determines the ability of the state to perform its security functions, regulate economic development, and meet social needs of the population. The most Martynenko (2019) models the dependence of tax common of them include extrapolation, calcula- revenues on macroeconomic indicators, identition of conditional elasticity, regression models, fies trends and develops forecast scenarios of revstructural models, microsimulation models and enues to the budget of Ukraine from state taxes At this stage, a randomized R|S analysis was the main methods of forecasting the used (Gachkov, 2009), the main advantages amount of tax revenues and the impact of tax col- of which are the ability to determine fractal lection on economic development do not give sta- similarity and persistence of dynamics from ble repetitive results, regardless of the methods of inaccurate data, with the exception of strong measurement, the object of study and the subjec- random fluctuations. Determination of accumulated deviations, nk,a j nk,a mi,a eAk i 1 n times, forming a series (R/S)n, from which

Determination of the entropy of a time series

DISCUSSION

Findings

CONCLUSION