Dynamics Of Seasonal Patterns In Geochemical, Isotopic, And Meteorological Records Of The Elbrus Region Derived From Functional Data Clustering

Gleb A Chernyakov,Mikhail Y Alexandrin,Vladimir N Mikhalenko,Valeria Vitelli,Anna V Kozachek,Olga N Solomina,Alexei M Grachev,V V Matskovsky

doi:10.24057/2071-9388-2019-180

Abstract

A nonparametric clustering method, the Bagging Voronoi K-Medoid Alignment algorithm, which simultaneously clusters and aligns spatially/temporally dependent curves, is applied to study various data series from the Elbrus region (Central Caucasus). We used the algorithm to cluster annual curves obtained by smoothing of the following synchronous data series: titanium concentrations in varved (annually laminated) bottom sediments of proglacial Lake Donguz-Orun; an oxygen-18 isotope record in an ice core from Mt. Elbrus; temperature and precipitation observations with a monthly resolution from Teberda and Terskol meteorological stations. The data of different types were clustered independently. Due to restrictions concerned with the availability of meteorological data, we have fulfilled the clustering procedure separately for two periods: 1926–2010 and 1951–2010. The study is aimed to determine whether the instrumental period could be reasonably divided (clustered) into several sub-periods using different climate and proxy time series; to examine the interpretability of the resulting borders of the clusters (resulting time periods); to study typical patterns of intra-annual variations of the data series. The results of clustering suggest that the precipitation and to a lesser degree titanium decadal-scale data may be reasonably grouped, while the temperature and oxygen-18 series are too short to form meaningful clusters; the intercluster boundaries show a notable degree of coherence between temperature and oxygen-18 data, and less between titanium and oxygen-18 as well as for precipitation series; the annual curves for titanium and partially precipitation data reveal much more pronounced intercluster variability than the annual patterns of temperature and oxygen-18 data.

Highlights

In the last decade, new paleoclimate archives were obtained in the course of expeditionary work involving the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences
The clustering procedure was applied independently to investigate several synchronous time series characterizing the dynamics of the natural environment in the Central Caucasus in the 20th century
As the result of this procedure, each time series is divided into intervals corresponding to DYNAMICS OF SEASONAL PATTERNS IN GEOCHEMICAL

Summary

Introduction

The obtained cores were studied and dated by laboratory methods; their elemental and isotopic compositions were determined (Darin et al 2015a; Darin et al 2015b; Kozachek et al 2015). Among the existing statistical approaches, mostly the correlation-regression and component analysis have been applied to study the new data (Alexandrin et al 2018). Among the applications of cluster analysis to these data, only works on studying the backward air mass trajectories and dust transfer are known (Kutuzov et al 2017; Khairedinova et al 2017). The clustering procedure was applied independently to investigate several synchronous time series characterizing the dynamics of the natural environment in the Central Caucasus in the 20th century. As the result of this procedure, each time series is divided into intervals corresponding to DYNAMICS OF SEASONAL PATTERNS IN GEOCHEMICAL

Methods

Results

Conclusion