Dynamics of rodent abundance and ground-nest predation risks in forest habitats of Central Europe: no evidence for the alternative prey hypothesis

Abstract

Birds' nesting success may vary significantly between years. Ample evidence exists that this variation is caused by temporal fluctuations in rodent populations, as rodents are important components in the diets of nest predators. The alternative prey hypothesis supposes that generalist predators switch to alternative prey (bird nests) when their main prey (rodents) is lacking, thus causing increased nest predation. According to the shared predation hypothesis, by contrast, predator density is enhanced at rodent population peaks and results in simultaneous increase in main and alternative prey predation. To evaluate these hypotheses, nest predation rate dynamics were examined using artificial nests (n = 560) and rodent abundance (2240 traps) during four breeding seasons in Central European (the Czech Republic) secondary forests. Although rodent abundance increased at the population peak by almost seven times compared to the baseline and nest predation rate also showed significant inter-year variation, the data support neither the alternative prey nor shared predation hypotheses. In rich ecosystems with complex trophic levels, predators can use many resources as alternative prey. Therefore, bird nest predation risk does not increase or decrease in periods of low rodent abundance.