Dynamics of pollen-generating environment producing impact on society based on the relative humidity of the previous year and flowering synchrony

Abstract

An area with the potential of producing high concentrations of airborne pollen is defined as the ‘potential pollinosis area’. However, the detailed dynamics of pollen dispersion are not fully understood. Further, studies on the detailed dynamics of the pollen-generating environment are limited. This study aimed to determine the relationship between the dynamics of potential pollinosis areas and annual meteorological factors with high spatiotemporal resolution. We visualised and analysed the dynamics of the potential polliosis area based on 11–year high-spatial-density observation data for the atmospheric concentrations of Cryptomeria japonica pollen. The results showed that the potential pollinosis area headed northeast with repeated expansion and contraction, while the centre of the potential pollinosis area leaped to the north in mid-March. The variance in the fluctuation of the coordinates for the potential pollinosis area before the northward leap was strongly related to the variance in the relative humidity of the previous year. These results indicated that the pollen grains of C. japonica across Japan are distributed based on the meteorological conditions of the previous year until mid-March, after which, the pollen grains are distributed through flowering synchrony. Our results suggest that daily nationwide flowering synchrony has a significant annual impact, and changes in relative humidity caused by, for example, global warming would affect the occurrence and predictability of seasonal changes in the pollen dispersion dynamics of C. japonica and other pollen-producing species. Our study showed that pollen production by C. japonica through flowering synchrony is a major cause of nationwide pollinosis and other allergy-related health problems.