Dynamics of National Position in Climate Change Negotiations: An Analysis of Emission, Cost and Regime Support

Abstract

There has been marked change in recent years in the positions taken by many nation states involved in climate change negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). While these changes in position track with shifting priorities of both developing and developed countries, a consensus on how a nation formulates its negotiation policy has not been reached, and therefore understanding these vicissitudes in global climate talks have thus far been difficult.Traditional approaches to explaining a nation’s position on climate change are often rooted in an interest-based methodological framework, such as Detlef Sprinz and Tapani Vaahtoranta’s (S&V) well-known cost-benefit model. While the S&V approach offers valuable insight and an intellectual base from which to conduct further study, it fails, as this paper demonstrates, to stand the test of time. That is, a thorough review of the history on global climate change negotiation reveals inaccuracies in the S&V model, particularly with regard to one of its primary variables – ecological vulnerability – which is difficult to measure and the model itself is fails to accurately account for processes of change in strategy formation. In light of these shortcomings, this paper offers an alternative analytical framework to better understand how a nation formulates its climate change negotiation policy and strategy.To this end, a four variable matrix – patterns A, B, C, and D – is developed which keys off of two central inputs affecting climate change negotiations: emission and cost. Emission, a nation’s share of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) portfolio, is representative of a country’s responsibility to actively engage with the global community on climate change. Cost can be understood as the expense incurred by a country that seeks to reduce its GHG emissions, and thus is a means of gauging the rational attractiveness for it to do so. When taken together and viewed under the four variable matrix developed in this paper, one is able to better understand the fundamental features influencing a country’s position on climate change negotiations. In order to analyze changes in national position, the variables of emission and cost are taken alongside a third factor – national support for climate change negotiation regime. This variable explores the motivation and impetus underlying a country’s decision to recalibrate its negotiation strategy, and incorporates such influences as national interest and political factors. In order to test the model formulated in this paper, a case study on China’s position and transition in UN climate change negotiations is undertaken. Major catalysts, stemming from national interests and political factors, are examined as explanatory factors influencing China’s gradual movement from a passive to active attitude toward climate change negotiation regime. This change, exemplified by its increased support for the UNFCCC, is born out in the four variable matrix introduced in this paper.